![]() The amounts are still all over the board. Other models are wrapping up the storm late on Sunday. ![]() Some of the models are trying to bring in a reinforcing shot on Sunday that extends the storm through Monday. As I mentioned in the past, the European is usually first to sniff out storms followed by the Canadian then the GFS.Īt this point, I should also mention that the German model, the NOAA NBM model, the Weather Prediction Center’s WPC model, and the AI model I often look at, the SPIRE are also all on board for a storm. Late yesterday, the GFS and Canadian model joined the European model forecasting a storm for next weekend. When the precipitation ends is up for debate. The models are coming together on a solution that would bring a storm through the area beginning Saturday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site! Click here to donate If you prefer to donate with Venmo: Click here to submit a weather report or question It also highlights Wolf Creek Pass from Pagosa.Įach of the models and services I use has its own “pluses and minuses” but I try to combine them in a combination that leads me to an accurate forecast. This once again is from the alternate service and it delineates downtown Durango from DRO. Here is NOAA’s high-resolution WPC model. The German model has been very bullish on this storm but it is likely overdone. Also the blob in southeast La Plata County stretching into New Mexico should be much lower. The western and northwestern portions of La Plata County should have higher totals similar to eastern La Plata County. However, the precipitation output on this particular run is wrong. The Canadian has been one of the most consistent models I have been watching. It shows you how much the orographics kick in with these storms from DRO to downtown. This service delineates downtown Durango from the airport DRO. Now I want to show the same run of the European from another model provider. At least when I am forecasting within the United States. Another question that has come up lately is inches or centimeters. I can’t put black dots up for everyone but I will consider other requests. The dot in the lower middle of the map is downtown Durango. I have added a new black dot for Telluride after recent emails from followers. Below 8,000 feet, I do not yet know the ratio. To convert to snow multiply by 10 above 8,000 feet. It is a better way to compare apples to apples. At times you see me refer to it as total liquid, or liquid equivalent. So I will stick with “Total QPF” for today, a meteorological term that means Total Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. The problem is not all of the models have that, or they are too warm-biased to be accurate. I know that people tend to prefer looking at the snow output parameter. If it happens there should only be minimal effects across the northern forecast area–Sometimes it just snows. There is a slight chance of a few rain or snow showers developing between this afternoon and Thursday. Until the storm arrives, mostly mild weather will continue. There is not a consensus on when it will end, it could be from early Sunday to early Tuesday. The storm still looks like it will start warm and cool considerably towards the end. I will be able to narrow that down as we get closer. It could be as early as 3 am or as late as 3 pm. The consensus is still leaning towards a Saturday start. I will not be requiring its services until it becomes more useful to me. The GFS model is definitely not one of those, you could say it is on the naughty list. Certain models are emerging as being more consistent from run to run. I got sidetracked yesterday and forgot to hit the Publish button for my post yesterday afternoon.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |